Bitget UEX Daily Report | US-Iran ceasefire negotiations progress; S&P 500 breaks 7000 for the first time; TSMC and Netflix to release earnings today (April 16, 2026)
I. Hot News
Federal Reserve Dynamics
Federal Reserve officials hint that interest rates may remain high for a long time
- St. Louis Fed President Bullard pointed out that supply shocks are simultaneously threatening both inflation and employment targets, and the current interest rate level may remain appropriate for "quite some time"; he also lowered the GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 1.5%-2% and expects inflation to approach 3% by the end of the year.
- Trump threatened in an interview that if current Chairman Powell remains on the board after his successor is confirmed, he will be removed; Powell's term ends on May 15, and the nomination hearing for Waller is scheduled for April 21.
- CME data shows that the probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in April is 98.4%.
The ongoing conflict in the Middle East continues to disrupt corporate decision-making, combined with hawkish signals, which may support the dollar in the short term and limit further upward movement in the stock market.
International Commodities
U.S.-Iran ceasefire negotiations advance, oil prices under pressure
- Trump stated that the U.S. and Iran are "very likely" to reach an agreement before King Charles III's visit to the U.S. in late April, with the current likelihood being "very high"; both sides are considering extending the ceasefire period by two weeks to advance peace negotiations.
- The Iranian Foreign Ministry continues dialogue through Pakistan but has not yet agreed to extend the ceasefire and has proposed free passage on the Oman side of the Strait of Hormuz while emphasizing that it will not "fully accept" the U.S. proposal.
- The White House described the negotiations as "constructive" and expressed optimism about the prospects.
Expectations of a ceasefire ease tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, temporarily alleviating crude oil supply risks, which is favorable for risk assets but suppresses short-term oil price rebound momentum.
Macroeconomic Policy
Federal Reserve Beige Book: Middle East conflict is the primary uncertainty for the U.S. economy
- The economy is still in mild expansion but growth is slowing, consumption maintains slight growth, "K-shaped" divergence is intensifying, and pressure on low-income groups is rising, with the job market in a "frozen period."
- AI is starting to influence hiring decisions as a structural factor, and companies are generally taking a wait-and-see attitude.
- The Senate again rejected a Democratic proposal to limit Trump's military actions against Iran (47-52 votes).
The situation in the Middle East has become a core disruptive factor in corporate decision-making, corroborating the Fed's hawkish statements, and the market remains cautiously optimistic about economic resilience.
II. Market Review
Commodity & Forex Performance
- Spot Gold: Slight fluctuations, currently around $4830/ounce.
- Spot Silver: Fluctuates with gold prices, currently around $80/ounce, performing relatively steadily supported by industrial demand.
- WTI Crude Oil: Down about 0.43%, currently around $87.7/barrel, with ceasefire negotiations alleviating supply concerns.
- Brent Crude Oil: Down about 0.19%, currently around $94.57/barrel, with geopolitical risk premiums rapidly declining.
- Dollar Index: Slightly retreated to around 98, with improved risk appetite suppressing the dollar.
Cryptocurrency Performance
- BTC: Up 0.44% in 24H, currently at $74,793, holding above the $74,000 mark after continuous fluctuations, with the ceasefire benefiting risk assets but Fed hawkish signals exerting some pressure.
- ETH: Up 1.16% in 24H, currently at $2360.
- Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap: Up 0.2% in 24H, total market cap around $2.61 trillion.
- Market Liquidation Situation: Total liquidation of about $219 million in 24H, with short liquidations around $141 million.
- Bitget BTC/USDT Liquidation Map: Current price (around $74,663) is stuck near the long-short liquidation boundary, with red long liquidations below having mostly been released, while green short liquidations above are starting to accumulate rapidly. There is a dense short position above (75k--78k) that has the potential to be "squeezed" upwards; however, there is no significant long fuel below, and the support for a pullback is weak.
- Spot ETF Net Inflow/Outflow: BTC spot ETF saw a net outflow of about $106 million yesterday; ETH spot ETF saw a net inflow of about $26.6 million yesterday.
- BTC Spot Inflow/Outflow: Yesterday saw an inflow of $2.008 billion, an outflow of $1.965 billion, with a net inflow of about $43 million.
U.S. Stock Index Performance
- Dow Jones: Down 0.15%, at 48,463.72 points, with relatively stable consecutive movements.
- S&P 500: Up 0.8%, at 7022.95 points, closing above the 7000-point mark for the first time in history.
- Nasdaq: Up 1.59%, at 24,016.02 points, rising for 11 consecutive trading days and setting a new historical high, driven significantly by the tech sector.
Tech Giants Dynamics
- NVDA: $196.33 (+1.2%) (sustained demand for computing power)
- AAPL: $266.43 (+2.94%) (Cook's purchase of Nike stock boosts confidence)
- MSFT: $411.95 (+4.61%) (acceleration of AI application deployment)
- GOOGL: $337.12 (+1.26%) (revaluation of SpaceX equity)
- AMZN: $248.50 (-0.21%) (short-term profit-taking)
- META: $671.58 (+1.37%) (advertising business remains robust)
- TSLA: $391.95 (+7.62%) (news of successful tape-out of A15 chip boosts sentiment)
Core reasons: The combination of ceasefire and profit expectations has driven the market, with the themes of AI and new energy continuing to ferment, collectively pushing tech giants to new index highs.
Sector Movement Observation
Nuclear Power/Quantum Computing Sector up over 8%
- Representative stocks: Oklo +8%, D-Wave Quantum +22.63%, IonQ +20.95%
- Driving factors: Dual drivers of energy transition and AI computing demand, with the market optimistic about the long-term prospects of clean energy and quantum technology.
AI Application Software Sector up about 4-6%
- Representative stocks: Cloudflare +6.43%, Palantir +4.75%
- Driving factors: Accelerated deployment of enterprise AI, with faster pace of software application landing.
Semiconductor Sector mixed performance
- Representative stocks: ASML -4% (Q2 guidance below expectations), Intel +1.77%
- Driving factors: Strong demand for AI chips but weak guidance from lithography machine giants, with significant internal rotation in the sector.
III. In-Depth Stock Analysis
1. Tesla - Successful Tape-Out of A15 Chip
Event Overview: Tesla announced the successful tape-out of its next-generation A15 AI chip, with CEO Musk publicly stating on social media that this chip "will become one of the highest-volume AI chips in the world." The A15 is primarily aimed at the FSD autonomous driving computing platform, Dojo supercomputer cluster, and Optimus humanoid robot project. The successful tape-out marks a key step for the company in achieving autonomous control over AI computing power, significantly reducing reliance on external suppliers while enhancing hardware efficiency and providing strong support for the Robotaxi business. Coupled with recent advancements in autonomous driving, this further strengthens the narrative of "AI + Automotive" dual drivers. Market Interpretation: Analysts generally believe that this move not only validates Tesla's execution of its end-to-end AI hardware strategy but also has the potential to significantly improve gross margins and open up long-term growth space; multiple investment banks point out that the mass production potential of the A15 will further solidify Tesla's technological moat in the AI hardware field, with market expectations for the company's valuation reconstruction significantly heating up. Investment Insight: The progress from tape-out to mass production of the A15 chip will become a core catalyst for Tesla's stock price in 2026, and investors should closely track subsequent testing data and deployment timelines to seize long-term valuation reassessment opportunities brought by AI hardware autonomy.
2. Microsoft - Acceleration of AI Application Deployment
Event Overview: Microsoft's stock surged 4.61%, primarily driven by the deepening collaboration with OpenAI, with the enterprise-level AI tool Copilot rapidly penetrating the Azure cloud platform and Office suite globally, significantly helping companies improve productivity, marking a shift from proof of concept to substantial commercial deployment of generative AI. Market Interpretation: Wall Street analysts unanimously point out that Microsoft's AI monetization process has entered an accelerated phase, with accelerated growth in Azure cloud business and expanded contributions from subscription revenues, and profitability is expected to remain high; institutions emphasize that the synergy between cloud and AI dual engines is becoming its core competitive advantage distinguishing it from peers. Investment Insight: The accelerated pace of AI deployment further solidifies Microsoft's leading position among tech giants, and the cloud + AI dual-engine model makes it one of the most certain core allocation targets for growth throughout the year.
3. Apple - Executives Increase Holdings in Nike Stock
Event Overview: Apple CEO Tim Cook recently increased his holdings in Nike stock again. According to SEC filing documents, he bought 25,000 shares at about $42.43 per share last Friday, totaling about $1.06 million, bringing his total holdings to 130,480 shares; this ongoing action since 2005 as a member of Nike's board has been interpreted by the market as a positive attitude from Apple's management towards cross-industry collaboration between consumer electronics and lifestyle brands, while also reflecting the company's confidence in the current consumer environment and the resilience of its ecosystem. Market Interpretation: Institutions believe that Cook's counter-cyclical increase in holdings sends an optimistic signal from management regarding consumer recovery, which helps boost investor expectations for stable iPhone sales and continued growth in service business, especially as some institutions on Wall Street are selling Nike, making this action more strategically significant. Investment Insight: The increasing proportion of service business and the synergy with hardware ecosystem will provide long-term valuation support for Apple, and it is recommended to continue monitoring its new hardware cycle and service revenue performance.
4. TSMC - Financial Report to be Released Today at Noon
Event Overview: TSMC will release its complete financial report for Q1 2026 today at noon. The market has already digested the positive news of about a 35% year-on-year increase in Q1 revenue, but the stock price slightly retreated by 1.26% yesterday, mainly reflecting some profit-taking; as the global leader in chip foundry, its performance guidance is a barometer for the entire semiconductor industry chain. Market Interpretation: Investment banks generally expect that strong demand for AI training and inference chips for advanced processes and CoWoS packaging will drive TSMC's performance to exceed market expectations for the year; institutions are particularly focused on capital expenditure plans, progress on 2nm processes, and visibility of AI-related orders, believing that the tight supply chain pattern is likely to continue. Investment Insight: As a core target in semiconductor foundry, TSMC's financial report and guidance will serve as an important verification window for industry prosperity, and the trend of AI capital expenditure is worth closely tracking.
5. Allbirds - Transition to AI Computing Business
Event Overview: Traditional sneaker brand Allbirds announced a major strategic transformation, abandoning its main sneaker business to focus on building artificial intelligence computing infrastructure. The company will be renamed NewBird AI and has reached a convertible bond financing agreement of up to $50 million, with the transformation expected to be completed in the second quarter; initially focusing on acquiring high-performance GPUs, providing computing power access services to customers through long-term leasing, with the ultimate goal of becoming a fully integrated GPU as a service (GPUaaS) and AI-native cloud solution provider, showcasing the high enthusiasm of the capital market for AI computing themes. Market Interpretation: Institutions point out that cases of traditional consumer companies transitioning to high-growth tech sectors are being sought after by the market, and if executed smoothly, it is expected to reshape the company's valuation logic; however, they also remind that the initial phase of transformation faces execution risks, competitive pressures, and challenges in capital efficiency. Investment Insight: Against the backdrop of accelerated rotation of AI themes, traditional enterprise transformation stories have high elasticity, and investors need to balance opportunities with uncertainties in transformation.
IV. Cryptocurrency Project Dynamics
According to SoSoValue data, yesterday (April 15, Eastern Time) saw a total net inflow of $17.1142 million for XRP spot ETF.
Matrixport has completely closed its last long position of 25,000 ETH (20x) after holding it for about 65 days, realizing a profit of $17.32 million.
Ethereum DEX aggregator Kyber leads with about 31% market share, followed closely by CowSwap at 22%, while 1inch's share has dropped from about 30% to 15%.
Onchain Lens monitoring shows that BlackRock withdrew 3,446 BTC worth $255.2 million from Coinbase in the past 8 hours.
CryptoQuant's research director Julio Moreno stated that Bitcoin's recent rise faces an increasing risk of profit-taking, with multiple on-chain indicators showing rising selling pressure. Bitcoin broke through $76,000 on Tuesday, reaching a new high since early February, but has since retreated to around $74,800, testing the trader's on-chain realized price of $76,800—historically a resistance level during bear markets that has repeatedly suppressed rebounds.
Tether, the issuer of USDT, transferred 951 BTC (approximately $70.47 million) from Bitfinex to its Bitcoin reserve address. This address has been purchasing BTC at 15% of company profits since 2023 and typically consolidates withdrawals from Bitfinex a few days after each quarter ends. Currently, this address holds a total of 97,141 BTC (approximately $7.2 billion), making it the fifth-largest BTC wallet globally.
Strive, a publicly traded Bitcoin treasury company, announced on X platform that it has raised its annual dividend rate for its product SATA by 25 basis points to 13.00%, while additionally purchasing 27 BTC, bringing the total amount of Bitcoin held by the company to 13,768 BTC.
According to Arkham monitoring, Morgan Stanley's spot Bitcoin ETF MSBT has purchased $83.6 million in BTC since its establishment this week, with the current on-chain address holding $64.4 million.
Data Release Schedule
Important Event Forecast
Thursday (April 16)
- TSMC will announce Q1 results before the market opens, and Netflix will announce Q1 results after the market closes; ★★★★★
- U.S. initial jobless claims data for the week ending April 11 will be released.
- Federal Reserve officials will speak intensively, and the Fed will release the Beige Book on economic conditions; any "hawkish" signals may suppress risk appetite. ★★★★★
Friday (April 17)
- Earnings season continues, and other regional banks or small tech companies may disclose results; the overall market may enter a wait-and-see mode over the weekend.
Overall Operation Suggestion for This Week: Earnings performance and the Fed's "hawkish" signals will dominate market sentiment, continue to pay attention to the situation in Iran, follow-up on U.S.-Iran negotiations, and focus on structural opportunities in the banking, technology, energy, and semiconductor sectors.
Institutional Views:
Multiple investment bank analysts pointed out that the advancement of ceasefire negotiations combined with improved corporate earnings expectations has jointly driven the rebound in risk assets, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching record highs as an immediate market response to the easing of geopolitical risks. Both Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs believe that the Fed officials' statements of "higher for longer" interest rates may temporarily suppress expectations for rate cuts, but the decrease in uncertainty regarding the Middle East conflict will support a recovery in corporate capital expenditures, with technology and AI themes remaining the main line for the year. In the cryptocurrency market, there are clear signs of institutional funds rotating from Bitcoin ETFs to Ethereum, with analysts from Bitwise and others expecting ETH's relative strength to continue into the second quarter. Overall, short-term risk appetite is warming, but caution is advised regarding the Fed's hawkish signals and oil price fluctuations that may disrupt inflation expectations, suggesting a focus on high-certainty growth assets and monitoring the follow-up progress of geopolitical negotiations.
Disclaimer: The above content is organized by AI search, with human verification for publication only, and does not constitute any investment advice.
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